For Democrats Who Expect Victorious Midterms, New Poll Has Bad News
Democrats have really been counting on a huge midterm election season, quite certain that they can ride a wave of negative Trump coverage all the way to the metaphorical bank. And, to be fair, the polls haven’t looked good for Republicans in quite some time. Trump’s popularity among conservative voters does not necessarily translate to local hometown boys, especially those that reject the president’s agenda at every given opportunity. And thanks to mainstream media bias, many Americans are laboring under the delusion that Trump is actually a terrible president.
But the economy tells the truth, even when the left lies. And voters cannot help but recognize that things have been on a tremendous upswing since Trump took office. The tax reform bill was a major victory for the GOP and the president, and it’s ramifications could be dramatic enough to put the Democrats’ hope of a blue wave back in the dusty box it came from. According to a new Politico poll, Republicans have basically erased the generic Democrat Party advantage on the midterm ballot.
Fully 39 percent of registered voters say they would support the GOP candidate for Congress in their district, while 38 percent would back the Democratic candidate. Nearly a quarter of voters, 23 percent, are undecided.
Voters are split almost evenly along party lines. Democratic voters break for their party, 85 percent to 5 percent, while Republicans similarly favor the GOP, 84 percent to 8 percent. Among independent voters, 26 percent would vote for the Democrat, 25 percent for the Republican and nearly half, 49 percent, are undecided.
The GOP’s 1-point advantage comes after three months of tracking in which Democrats maintained a lead ranging between 2 and 10 points on the generic ballot. That has been generally smaller than the party’s lead in other public surveys: The most recent RealClearPolitics average shows Democrats ahead by 7 points on the generic ballot, though that’s down from a high of 13 points late last year.
The new year has also produced a Trump polling bump. In the new poll, 47 percent of voters approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while the same percentage disapprove.
Republicans got off to a rocky start last year with the botched Obamacare repeal, but they seem to have found their footing. It was never going to be easy for the old Republican playbook to fit seamlessly in with the Trump agenda, and we shouldn’t have been surprised to see a hiccup or two. Depending on which way the immigration debate goes, we could be seeing a new dawn for the GOP in Washington. If Trump and his Republicans can work together, there’s nothing they can’t accomplish. Voters will reward them in November.