GOP Losing Independent Voters

Independents have not been moving towards Republicans despite the declining support they have for Democrats.

A new Associated Press VoteCast poll conducted along with NORC at the University of Chicago has found that in the past three elections support for Democrats has been declining among independent voters, but despite this Republicans have not managed to swing those voters.

The poll showed that in the latest midterm election, GOP House candidates managed to receive around 38 percent support from independent voters. Similarly, in 2020 they got 37 percent and in 2018 they had 38 percent. At the same time though Democrats have lost around 10 percentage points from independent supporters in the last midterm election. In 2018, 51 percent of independents supported Democratic House candidates, while in 2020, 52 percent of independent voters supported Democrats. However, according to the latest polling data, in 2022 that percentage fell to 42 percent.

Vickie Kland, a self-identified independent voter, told AP that after watching campaign ads by both Republicans and Democrats in her county that they were not telling her what they were going to be doing “for the state or the country.”

Some experts have also said that the GOP messaging does not draw in independents as it is focused on criticizing Biden and the Democrats. This is why while it might do well in a primary election, it generally does not perform as well in a general election.

David Winston, a Republican pollster and senior adviser to House Republicans said that as part of the messaging you need to let voters know what you will do. “Somehow the Republican campaigns managed not to do that. And that’s a real serious problem.”