In Sign #322 that the mythical Blue Wave is simply not going to materialize in the midterms, an NBC News report found that in the swing states where early voting has begun, Republicans are outpacing Democrats at the polls. In Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, Tennessee, and Texas,
Republican voters are outshowing their Democratic counterparts when it comes to casting ballots early; the only significant state where Democrats are ahead is Nevada. The data not only indicates that Republicans are poised to hold onto the Senate, but that they may even have a chance to keep Democrats from taking control of the House.
“The latest data suggests robust enthusiasm among early Republican voters that could put a dent in Democratic hopes for a ‘blue wave’ in next month’s midterm elections,” reports NBC. “Republicans typically dominate early voting by absentee ballots, while Democrats tend to have the advantage with in-person early voting. So, for example, the entire early voting picture in Florida, which has yet to begin in-person voting, is incomplete.”
Polling firms still give Democrats a slight edge when it comes to the House races, but that advantage has slipped significantly over the last month or so. Dems still lead on the generic ballot, and nationally, voters say they want to see the Democratic Party take control of Congress.
But neither of those two questions matter all that much when the rubber meets the road. When you break things down to each individual race, it looks more and more likely that Republicans may be able to (narrowly) hold on to their House of Representatives power. If they can just keep Democrats three seats shy of taking control, they can still lose twenty of their spots and be okay. It won’t make things any easier when it comes to passing legislation, but it will prevent Democrats from getting in there and becoming a force for endless obstruction and meaningless “investigations” of the president. It will also prevent the Democrats from trying to impeach Trump.
Our best guess is that Democrats are going to rue the day they went after Brett Kavanaugh in the disgusting, fact-free way that they did. That brought the Republican monster to life in a way that the Democrats did not expect. Not in three years has the party been this united in solidarity. Yes, perhaps that stunt show energized suburban women to vote Democrat (or at least, that’s what the media tells us), but time will tell if that’s going to be enough.
Democrats were headed for their first major victory in years, and they blew it by overtly demonstrating to the nation why they should not be in power.