You can feel the arrogance burbling up everywhere you turn. On Meet the Press Daily on Tuesday afternoon, the panel actually started giggling when talking about President Donald Trump and his predictions of a “red wave” in November. We couldn’t help but be reminded of the many times in late 2015 when similar panels – on MTP, CNN, Bill Maher’s show, and everywhere else – laughed heartily when someone would predict that Trump would be the Republican nominee. We couldn’t help but remember all of those GOP candidates assuring the media that Trump would NOT be crowned the nominee that summer. And then, all of those confident Democrats saying that Hillary Clinton basically couldn’t lose on Election Day.
Don’t you feel it? It’s that same air of confidence and arrogance and faith in the polls that we see around us today. It would seem hard to believe that Democrats could be headed for their second heartbreak in a row, but they are certainly setting themselves up for a shock. We’d say the “shock of a lifetime,” but nothing will ever be able to outdo 2016.
On Fox & Friends this week, White House counselor Kellyanne Conway said that the mainstream media was putting just a few too many of their eggs in the “conventional wisdom” basket.
“Let’s not forget the same geniuses that predicted a huge romp by that woman who lost in 2016 are the same people predicting a huge win by the Democrats this time,” Conway said on Wednesday. “So we have to be a little bit cautious.”
Polls show that there is virtually no doubt that Democrats will pick up at least a few seats in the House. But beyond that? Taking the majority? It’s far, far from assured, no matter how many political pundits insist that it’s so. And as far as the Senate goes, the Democrats would have to pull off upset after upset to make that happen. Talk of them gaining control of both houses of Congress are as silly as that talk of Hillary Clinton winning Arizona.
In an article this week about “nervous Democrats” hoping not to get struck by the same bolt of lightning twice, McClatchy DC put it in numeric terms: “FiveThirtyEight gives Democrats a 76.9 percent chance of winning the House one month before Election Day. Their odds for Clinton’s victory two years ago? 71.4 percent.”
No question about it, things look grim for Republicans heading into this election.
But then, they looked grim for Donald Trump in 2016, too.